Cubs Spring Training Battles #2: 4th and 5th starters

I will continue my analysis of the Cubs Spring Training battles tonight by looking at the battle for the Cubs 4th and 5th starting pitchers spots.

Although Ted Lilly is determined to pitch in a Cactus league game, its unlikely he will be ready by the start of the season.  Thus, the Cubs will need to find a pitcher to fill in while Lilly recovers as well as a 5th starter.

The 3 main contenders are Tom Gorzelanny, Sean Marshall and Jeff Samardzija, who all pitched well yesterday, in the opening round of the competition.  Carlos Silva might also be considered a contender for the rotation, but after getting rocked in his spring debut, I certainly hope not.

So, here are the contenders to fill out the rotation:

Tom Gorzelanny – Gorzelanny split time between starter and reliever for the Cubs, after being acquired from the Pirates at the trade deadline, making 7 starts and 6 relief appearances.  He didn’t fare particularly well in either role.  Although he was 4-2 as a starter, he had a 5.40 ERA and gave up 35 hits, including 5 HR’s in 31.2 IP.  However, he did manage to strikeout 35 batters in that time.  As a reliever, he had a 6.75 ERA in 6.2 IP.

For his career, Gorzelanny has a 4.78 ERA as a starter in 404.2 IP.  He has a 6.88 ERA as a reliever, albeit in only 17 IP.  He has fared well against lefties, holding them to a .232 average and could be a lefty specialist in the bullpen if he doesn’t make the rotation.

Sean Marshall – Marshall spent most of the year in the bullpen for the Cubs last season, appearing in 46 games as a reliever.  But he did make 9 starts for the Cubs while filling in during Zambrano’s injury.  He posted a nice 3.23 ERA as a reliever for the Cubs in 39 IP, while sporting an ugly 5.24 ERA as a starter.

For his career, he has a 3.15 ERA as a reliever and a 4.86 ERA as a starter.  He also has fared well against lefthanders, holding them to a .243 average in his career.

Jeff Samardzija – Samardzija has bounced back and forth from the bullpen to the rotation in both the minors and majors the last few years.  He pitched effectively down the stretch in 2008 as a reliever, posting a 2.28 ERA in 27.2 IP during the Cubs pennant drive.  However, he struggled in 2008, posting a 7.53 ERA in 34.2 IP.

After stating that Samardzija would be a starting pitcher for 2010, the Cubs backed that up by getting Samardzija some starts in winter ball.  He pitched well and Lou Piniella has said he that he wants Samardzija to win the job.

Prediction

A lot of this could depend on whether the Cubs can find another lefty for the pen to go along with John Grabow.  I think that Piniella would prefer to have two lefties in the pen and unless either John Gaub, J.R. Mathes or James Russell can win the job, Piniella will stick either Gorzelanny or Marshall back in the pen.

I think the Cubs would be best served if Samardzija and Marshall are in the rotation and Gorzelanny is in the pen.  However, I predict that Piniella will go with Marshall in the pen, where he has fared better under Piniella’s watch, and stick Gorzelanny and Samardzija in the rotation.  But, if Gaub or one of the other lefty relievers impresses this spring, Samardzija may end up in AAA.