Cubs Infield: 2010 and beyond

December 1st, 2009 | by Mark |

Today I will be taking a look at the Cubs infield depth and predicting what the future might hold.

2010

Firstbase – Derrek Lee (signed through 2010) – Lee had a renaissance year for the Cubs in 2009, hitting .306 with 35 homeruns, the most since his career year in 2005. He will be playing out his contract year with the Cubs in 2010, which may provide extra motivation. Micah Hoffpauir will likely backup Lee, but will not see a lot of playing time at first as Lee has averaged 149 games played the last 3 years.

Thirdbase – Aramis Ramirez (signed through 2010 with 2011 player option and 2012 team option) – Ramirez sufferred a shoulder separation in 2009 and was limited to 82 games. When healthy, he is arguably the Cubs best hitter, as his .317 average and 15 homeruns in only 306 at bats can attest. However, it remains to be seen if his shoulder injury will linger into 2010 or if one diving play could lead to another separation. If he misses any time, the Cubs will likely turn to Mike Fontenot to man thirdbase, which would be a huge downgrade.

Middle Infield - Ryan Theriot (under team control through 2012), Jeff Baker (under team control through 2012), Mike Fontenot (under team control through 2013) and Starlin Castro (rookie) – Here’s where the picture starts to get muddy. Starlin Castro, the Cubs top prospect, is making a major push to be the starting shortstop in 2010. He had an excellent year between high A and AA ball in 2009 (.299/.342/.392) and followed that up with an even better showing in the Arizona Fall League (.376/.396/.475). The Cubs have already told Theriot to prepare for a move to second base and its not a question of “if” but “when”. Its possible, albeit a longshot, that Castro could earn the starting job out of spring training. More likely though, he will be a midseason callup.

Assuming that Castro is not ready at the beginning of 2010, then Ryan Theriot will continue to man the shortstop position. Theriot had another fine year with the Cubs hitting .284 with 21 SB’s atop the order. Theriot has earned a starting spot, its just a matter of whether its at short or second.

Jeff Baker and Mike Fontenot will likely split time at second base until Castro is ready. Fontenot began 2009 as the starting secondbaseman, but played himself out of the position by hitting only .236/.301/.377 on the year. He became a “super 2″ player this year, meaning that he is eligible for arbitration. There was some speculation that the Cubs might non-tender him as a result, but with his poor hitting its unlikely that he’ll get a significant raise in arbitration, so the Cubs will hold onto him for now.

Jeff Baker was acquired from Colorado on July 2nd and hit .305/.362/.448 in 203 AB’s with the Cubs. He sould get the lion’s share of starts at second. If he and Fontenot fail to hit, it will give the Cubs even more incentive to promote Castro.

The Cubs also have Aaron Miles (signed through 2010) as a middle infield candidate. But after hitting .185/.224/.242 in 2009, you can pretty much forget about him and its possible the Cubs may just release him.

2011 and beyond

The 2010 offseason could be a pivitol one for the Cubs and their corner infielders. Derrek Lee is set to become a free agent and Aramis Ramirez can opt out of his contract after the 2010 season. If the Cubs have another bad year like 2009, they could conceivably lose both corner guys. If that should happen the Cubs would be hard-pressed to replace them internally and would likely have to fill the positions via free agency or trade.

Losing Lee after 2010 may not be such a bad thing. He will be 35 at the end of the 2010 season and it would not be wise to sign him to another multi-year deal. Unless you’re on steroids (see: Barry Bonds), a players’ skills generally start to diminish by their mid-30’s. So, unless Lee is willing to take a 1 or 2 year deal (unlikely), its probably best to let him walk. The Cubs could probably make due with some combination of Micah Hoffpauir and Jake Fox, but would probably be better served by acquiring a firstbaseman via trade. One possibility might be the Padres Adrian Gonzalez. He is signed through 2011 and if the Padres realize that they cannot sign him to an extension, they may decide to trade him for prospects.

Ramirez, on the other hand, will only be 32 at the end of 2010. The Cubs would love to keep him through 2012 and hopefully they can be competitive enough to convince him to stay. If Ramirez hangs around through 2012, Vitters should be ready to take over by 2013 (if not earlier). Its also possible that Vitters could play third in 2012 and Ramirez could move to first.

As for the middle infielders, Castro should take over short by 2011 with Theriot moving to second. The Cubs will then probably release or trade Baker and/or Fontenot, perhaps keeping one of them for infield depth.

So, based on the above, here are my projected infield starters for 2010-2012:

2010 – Derrek Lee (1B), Jeff Baker (2B), Ryan Theriot (SS) and Aramis Ramirez (3B). Note: this is the opening day starting lineup. I predict that Castro will be called up in June (to avoid “super two” status) and Theriot will then move to second.

2011 – Adrian Gonzalez (1B), Ryan Theriot (2B), Starlin Castro (SS) and Aramis Ramirez (3B).

2012 – Aramis Ramirez (1B), Ryan Theriot (2B), Starlin Castro (SS) and Josh Vitters (3B).

Next up: I will wrap up my analyses of the Cubs depth chart by taking a look at the Cubs outfield on Thursday. Also, check out my analyses of the Cubs starting pitching and relief pitching.