Cubs Starting Pitching: 2010 & Beyond

Tonight I am starting the first of my series looking at the various positions within the Cubs organization, analyzing their depth and predicting what 2010 and the future holds.  Leading off is the starting pitching.

2010

Starting pitching was a strength for the Cubs in 2009 and it looks to be again in 2010.  The only starting pitcher who is a free agent for the Cubs is Rich Harden and although he is interested in returning to the Cubs in 2010, it appears that the Cubs will let him walk.

With Harden’s likely departure, the Cubs are left with a rotation of Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano, Randy Wells and a 5th starter to be selected from the group of Tom Gorzelanny, Sean Marshall and Jeff Smardzija.  Here’s a look at what each of these pitchers brings to the table.

Ted Lilly (signed through 2010) – Lilly joined the Cubs in 2007 and has been stellar ever since, with 2009 being a career year for him.  He posted a career best 3.10 ERA and gave up the fewest walks/9 in his career (1.8), which led to the lowest whip of his career (1.06).  He tied for the Cubs lead in wins with 12 and would have had more wins if the Cubs offense hadn’t gone AWOL all season.  Although he was limited to 27 starts due to a bum knee and a sore shoulder, I would still consider him the staff ace for 2010.

Ryan Dempster (signed through 2011 with 2012 player option) - Dempster followed up a career year in 2008 (17 wins and a 2.96 ERA) with another strong year, posting a 3.65 ERA and 11 wins in 31 starts.  He led the Cubs in IP (200) and strikeouts (172) and seems to have gotten over the wildness that plagued his early career (4.66 walks/9IP through 2007) to average just over 3 walks/9IP the last 2 years.

Carlos Zambrano (signed for too long (2013) and too much ($73 million)) - the former ace of the staff has not pitched like an ace since 2006 (the year before the Cubs signed him to a 5 year extension).  There are concerns about his fitness, health (back issues) and whether the extensive workload he endured from 2004-2006 is coming back to haunt him now.  He has gone from a dominant pitcher (3.14 ERA, 1.18 whip and 8.3 K/9IP from 2004-2006) to a slightly above average pitcher (3.89 ERA, 1.33 whip and 7.2 K/9IP).  These are still good numbers for a pitcher, but not one making $18 million a year.

Randy Wells (under Cubs control through 2014) – despite struggling at AAA Iowa the last few years, Wells pitched well in 5 starts with Iowa at the beginning of 2009 and earned the call when the Cubs needed another starter.  He took hold of the 5th starter job and never let go, ending the season tied with Lilly for the lead in wins (12) and posting the lowest ERA of all the starters (3.05).  Wells was certainly a breath of fresh air for the Cubs and has earned the 4th starter job for 2010.

5th Starter – The 5th starter job is up for grabs for 2010 and will likely come down to one of Tom Gorzelanny, Sean Marshall or Jeff Samardzija.

Jeff Samardzija (signed through 2013) – Lou Piniella has come out and said that he hopes Samardzija wins the job.  Samardzija has the best stuff of the candidates, but it remains to be seen if he can harness it.  He has bounced back and forth from the rotation to the pen and from the minors to the majors the last two years, but the Cubs seem intent on making him a starter for 2010.  He pitched well in 5 starts in the Mexican winter league in October (2.25 ERA and 22 K’s in 24 IP) and is probably the favorite to become the 5th starter.

Tom Gorzelanny (under Cubs control through 2012) – Gorzelanny also split time between starting and relieving after being acquired from the Pirates in July and did not fare well in either role (5.40 ERA as a starter, 6.75 ERA as a reliever).  However, he did show some improvement in September, posting a 3.21 ERA in 14 IP.  If he doesn’t win the 5th starting spot in spring training, he could give the Cubs another lefthander out of the pen.

Sean Marshall (under Cubs control through 2011) – although he has fared well as a starter for the Cubs in the past (7-8 with a 3.92 ERA in 2007), Marshall was used primarily out of the pen in 2009.  He did make 9 spot starts for the Cubs, but was much more effective as a reliever (3.23 ERA as a reliever, 5.24 ERA as a starter).  He’ll likely begin 2010 in the bullpen.

So, that’s how the Cubs rotation should stack up for 2010, with Lilly, Dempster, Zambrano, Wells and Samardzija the likely starters and Gorzelanny and Marshall backing them up.  Lilly will likely open up 2010 on the DL, so either Gorzelanny or Marshall will fill in for him until he’s ready.

2011 and beyond

For 2011, only Lilly will become a free agent after 2010.  As a lefthanded starter who appears to be getting better with age, Lilly will probably command a big, multi-year contract on the free agent market and the Cubs will probably have to let him walk as well.

However, that might not be such a bad thing as the Cubs probably do not want to lock up another aging veteran to a long-term contract and they have some good pitching prospects on the horizon.  Its likely that one of Andrew Cashner, Jay Jackson or Chris Carpenter will take Lilly’s spot in 2011.

After 2011, its anybody’s guess what might happen.  Dempster has a $14 million player option for 2012, which he’ll probably turn down in hopes of getting one last multi-year contract out of someone before his skills go downhill.  If he jumps ship, the Cubs will probably plug one of Cashner, Jackson or Carpenter in to fill his spot.

Also, its possible that the Cubs might use one of their pitching prospects to acquire a player this offseason (Granderson, perhaps) or the next.  The Cubs now have some depth at starting pitcher and should not be afraid to use it.

So, to sum up, here’s how I see the Cubs rotation stacking up over the next few years:

2010 – Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano, Randy Wells and Jeff Samrdzija

2011 – Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano, Randy Wells, Jeff Samardzija and Jay Jackson.

2012 – Carlos Zambrano, Jeff Samardzija, Randy Wells, Jay Jackson and Chris Carpenter.

Next:  I’ll take a look at the Cubs bullpen on Sunday.

Have a Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

Tags: Andrew Cashner, Carlos Zambrano, Chris Carpenter, Jay Jackson, Jeff Samardzija, Randy Wells, Rich Harden, Ryan Dempster, Sean Marshall, Ted Lilly, Tom Gorzelanny