Chicago Cubs Top Ten Prospects

I am continuing with the minor league theme this week by giving you my take on the Cubs top 10 prospects.  This list is meant as an evaluation of the players with the most talent in the Cubs minor league system and not necessarily those who can help the Cubs (or your fantasy team) in 2010.  For those interested in the players who could help the Cubs in 2010, I will be presenting my list of top 10 Cubs prospects for 2010 on Thursday.

Also, note that these lists only represent prospects who have not exhausted their rookie eligibility.  Therefore, players like Jeff Samardzija, Jake Fox and Micah Hoffpauir, who have exceeded the rookie limits for AB’s or IP are excluded from these lists.

So, without further ado, here they are:

1. Josh Vitters – regarded by many as the Cubs top prospect entering the 2009 season, Vitters has done nothing to change that opinion.  Although he hit only .284/.314/.456 between low A Peoria and high A Daytona, it was his .316/.351/.535 line at Peoria that really impressed.  As he learns to adjust as he moves up the ladder, the promotions should come more quickly.  Vitters will probably need at least 2 more years in the minors before he’s ready for the show.  Coincidently, Aramis Ramirez is signed through 2011, with an option for 2012, which gives the Cubs time to let Vitters progress at his own pace.  ETA:  late 2011
2. Starlin Castro – Castro has been turning heads all season and his performance in the Arizona Fall League (where he is currently leading the league in hitting with a .423 average) is earning him comparisons to a young Alfonso Soriano.  Scouts believe he could be an All-Star shortstop and Cubs fans may not have much longer to wait for his arrival.  He reached AA Tennessee this year and with his strong AFL showing, he could start 2010 at AAA with an outside chance of making the opening day roster.  He has been working out at secondbase in Arizona and could be the Cubs answer at that position.  ETA:  mid 2010
3. Andrew Cashner – the Cubs 2008 first round pick is on the fast track to the majors, moving up to AA in his first full minor league season in 2009.  After a rough first start in the AFL, Cashner has pitched back-to-back quality starts, including 4 no-hit innings in his last start on October 28.  Cashner should begin 2010 in AAA and could be the first starter called upon should one of the Cubs starters falter.  ETA:  mid 2010 
4. Jay Jackson – Jackson was promoted quickly in 2009, playing at three different levels and ending at AAA Iowa.  If Cashner is the 3rd best Cubs prospect, Jackson is 3A, as they both put up impressive numbers and could battle for the Cubs “6th starter” position at AAA.  ETA:  mid 2010
5. Hak-Ju Lee – Lee showed off his hitting ability (.330 average) and plus speed (25 SB’s in 68 games) in his first year in the minors.  He still has to fill out his tall frame a bit (6′2″, 170 lbs) and is still at least a  few years away from the majors, but the Cubs have to be pleased with the early results.  ETA:  late 2012
6. Tyler Colvin – a former first round pick, scouts were comparing him to Steve Finley and and Shawn Green after his first full season in the minors (.299 with 16 HR’s and 17 SB’s in 2007).  However, a bum elbow led to a down year in AA in 2008 (.256 and 14 HR’s) and his ranking within the organization took a hit.  He bounced back well in 2009, hitting .300 with 14 HR’s in AA and earned a late-season promotion to the majors.  Its possible that he could replace Milton Bradley in rightfield in 2010, but its more likely the Cubs will give him another year to develop and use a stopgap option in right (assuming Bradley is traded).  ETA: late 2010
7. Ryan Flaherty – Originally drafted as a shortstop, Flaherty was moved to second to ease the Cubs shortstop logjam (see Starlin Castro and Hak-Ju Lee).  Flaherty showed some pop at class A Peoria this year with 20 HR’s and should be able to hit 10-15 HR’s in the majors.   His experience and polish should allow him to move up faster, now that he’s established himself in his first full year in the minors and he could be only a couple years away.  ETA:  mid 2011
8. Chris Carpenter – another one of the Cubs up-and-coming young pitchers, Carpenter dominated at class A Peoria and Daytona (combined 2.19 ERA and 93 K’s in 98.2 IP) before hitting a wall at AA Tennessee (4.78 ERA).  He has a mid 90’s fastball and hard curveball to go along with an improving changeup.  He will need to prove he can handle AA before moving up, so he’s at least a year away.  ETA: mid 2011
9. Brandon Guyer – Guyer has plus speed and raw power, but only his speed showed up in 2009 (30 SB’s and only 3 HR’s).  He did hit 14 HR’s in 88 games at Peoria in 2008, so the power potential is there.  Like Carpenter, Guyer dominated A ball (.347 average with 23 SB’s at Daytona) before hitting the wall at AA (.190 average).  He will also need a year to consolidate his skills at AA before being considered for the majors.  ETA: mid 2011
10. Steve Clevenger – Clevenger has proven he can hit for average (.290 in 2009), but has yet to show much power (only 1 HR in 307 AB’s).  Still, he is a solid catcher with an above average arm and could compliment Geo Soto well while also filling in at other positions.  He reached AAA in 2009 and has little left to prove in the minors and should reach the majors in 2010.  ETA: mid 2010

Honorable mention – Darwin Barney, Esmailin Caridad, John Gaub, Blake Parker and Jeff Stevens.

Overall, the Cubs are blessed with a good group of middle infield prospects (Castro, Lee, Flaherty and Barney, as well as others who did not make this list) and some good young pitching (Cashner, Jackson and Carpenter).  Chances are that a couple of the Cubs infield prospects will be traded for other areas of need, but that the Cubs will hold on to Castro and either play him at second or move Theriot there.  If Theriot’s skills start to diminish, the Cubs could replace him with Flaherty down the road.  Thus, its not hard to imagine the following potential lineup for 2012:

(If we could only trade Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Zambrano)

Coming up next, I will close out my review of the Cubs minor leagues and prospects with a look at the top 10 prospects for 2010 on Thursday.

Tags: Andrew Cashner, Blake Parker, Brandon Guyer, Carlos Marmol, Carlos Zambrano, Chicago Cubs, Chris Carpenter, Darwin Barney, Esmailin Caridad, Geovany Soto, Hak-Ju Lee, Jay Jackson, Jeff Samardzija, Jeff Stevens, John Gaub, Josh Vitters, projected lineup, Ryan Flaherty, Ryan Theriot, Stalin Castro, Starlin Castro, Steve Clevenger, top 10 prospects, Tyler Colvin